Reliability of Building Inventories in Seismic Prone Regions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sibylle?SteimenEmail author  Donat?F?h  Domenico?Giardini  Martin?Bertogg  Silvio?Tschudi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(3):361-388

A study on uncertainties in building inventory and vulnerability assessment for the city of Basel, Switzerland a moderate hazard but high-risk area is presented. Emphasis is put on the special conditions and demands on the data assessment procedure in such an environment. The building information was assessed from the sidewalk using a method similar to that proposed in FEMA-154. With only three persons working for two weeks, about 10% of the citys building stock was assessed. The quality of the dataset was tested by using pre-existing reference data. These tests revealed patterns of misinterpreted structural information; important features like the floor type in URM buildings were difficult to identify.Six methods are proposed to derive building vulnerability from the collected structural information using the definitions of EMS98. The variation between the individual results was investigated in detail. A sample earthquake scenario with intensity IX in the city of Basel is used to demonstrate the influence of uncertainty in the inventory on the scenario results. The range of variation in the results is huge. Overall damage in the six scenarios differed by up to 27%. The amount of collapsed buildings in the historical part of the city comprised between 28% in the worst case and 3% in the best. There is a distinct influence of the inspectors opinion visible in the scenario results, which introduces a remarkable uncertainty. This emphasizes the importance of reliable inventory assessments and makes uncertainty analysis in earthquake scenarios indispensable – especially in areas of moderate seismicity where observational data from earthquake damage is missing.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2003     

Nicolas Deichmann  Manfred Baer  Jochen Braunmiller  Cécile Cornou  Donat Fäh  Domenico Giardini  Monika Gisler  Sarah Huber  Stephan Husen  Philipp Kästli  Urs Kradolfer  Martin Mai  Silvio Maraini  Ivo Oprsal  Thomas Schler  Danijel Schorlemmer  Stefan Wiemer  Jochen Wössner  Adrian Wyss 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2004,97(3):447-458

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Fast Solar Wind Velocity in a Polar Coronal Hole during Solar Minimum     

Antonucci  Ester  Dodero  Maria Adele  Giordano  Silvio 《Solar physics》2000,197(1):115-134

We present a study of the outflow velocity of the fast wind in the northern polar coronal hole observed on 21 May 1996, during the minimum of solar activity, in the frame of a joint observing program of the SOHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) mission. The outflow velocity is inferred from an analysis of the Doppler dimming of the intensities of the Ovi 1032, 1037 and Hi L 1216 lines observed between 1.5 R and 3.5 R with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS), operating onboard SOHO. The analysis shows that for a coronal plasma characterized by low density, as derived for a polar hole at solar minimum by Guhathakurta et al. (1999), and low temperature, as directly measured at the base of this coronal hole by David et al. (1998), the oxygen outflow speed derived spectroscopically is consistent with that implied by the proton flux conservation. The hydrogen outflow is also consistent with flux conservation if the deviation from isotropy of the velocity distribution of the hydrogen atoms is negligible. Hence, for this cool and tenuous corona, the oxygen ions and neutral hydrogen atoms flow outward roughly at the same speed, which increases from 40 km s^–1 at 1.5 R to 360 km s^–1 at 3.1 R , with an average acceleration of the order of 4.5×10³ cm s^–2. The highly anisotropic velocity distributions of the Ovi ions found in the analysis confirm that the process which is heating the oxygen ions acts preferentially across the magnetic field.  相似文献   

Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Silvio J. Pereira-Cardenal  Henrik Madsen  Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen  Niels Riegels  Roar Jensen  Birger Mo  Ivar Wangensteen  Peter Bauer-Gottwein 《Climatic change》2014,126(3-4):351-364

Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes in precipitation will reduce runoff, decrease hydropower production (with accompanying increases in thermal generation), and increase irrigation water use, while higher temperatures will shift power demand from winter to summer months. The combined impact of these effects will generally make it more challenging to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands.  相似文献   

European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model     

Paolo Davini  Chiara Cagnazzo  Pier Giuseppe Fogli  Elisa Manzini  Silvio Gualdi  Antonio Navarra 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):71-85

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.  相似文献   

Morphology and geology of the continental shelf and upper slope of southern Central Chile (33°S–43°S)     

David Völker  Jacob Geersen  Eduardo Contreras-Reyes  Javier Sellanes  Silvio Pantoja  Wolfgang Rabbel  Martin Thorwart  Christian Reichert  Martin Block  Wilhelm Reimer Weinrebe 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(7):1765-1787

The continental shelf and slope of southern Central Chile have been subject to a number of international as well as Chilean research campaigns over the last 30 years. This work summarizes the geologic setting of the southern Central Chilean Continental shelf (33°S–43°S) using recently published geophysical, seismological, sedimentological and bio-geochemical data. Additionally, unpublished data such as reflection seismic profiles, swath bathymetry and observations on biota that allow further insights into the evolution of this continental platform are integrated. The outcome is an overview of the current knowledge about the geology of the southern Central Chilean shelf and upper slope. We observe both patches of reduced as well as high recent sedimentation on the shelf and upper slope, due to local redistribution of fluvial input, mainly governed by bottom currents and submarine canyons and highly productive upwelling zones. Shelf basins show highly variable thickness of Oligocene-Quaternary sedimentary units that are dissected by the marine continuations of upper plate faults known from land. Seismic velocity studies indicate that a paleo-accretionary complex that is sandwiched between the present, relatively small active accretionary prism and the continental crust forms the bulk of the continental margin of southern Central Chile.  相似文献   

Cryptic metasomatic agent measured in situ in Variscan mantle rocks: Melt inclusions in garnet of eclogite,Granulitgebirge, Germany     

Alessia Borghini  Silvio Ferrero  Patrick J. O’Brien  Oscar Laurent  Christina Günter  Martin A. Ziemann 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(3):207-234

Garnet of eclogite (formerly termed garnet clinopyroxenite) hosted in lenses of orogenic garnet peridotite from the Granulitgebirge, NW Bohemian Massif, contains unique inclusions of granitic melt, now either glassy or crystallized. Analysed glasses and re-homogenized inclusions are hydrous, peraluminous, and enriched in highly incompatible elements characteristic of the continental crust such as Cs, Li, B, Pb, Rb, Th, and U. The original melt thus represents a pristine, chemically evolved metasomatic agent, which infiltrated the mantle via deep continental subduction during the Variscan orogeny. The bulk chemical composition of the studied eclogites is similar to that of Fe-rich basalt and the enrichment in LILE and U suggest a subduction-related component. All these geochemical features confirm metasomatism. In comparison with many other garnet+clinopyroxene-bearing lenses in peridotites of the Bohemian Massif, the studied samples from Rubinberg and Klatschmühle are more akin to eclogite than pyroxenites, as reflected in high jadeite content in clinopyroxene, relatively low Mg, Cr, and Ni but relatively high Ti. However, trace elements of both bulk rock and individual mineral phases show also important differences making these samples rather unique. Metasomatism involving a melt requiring a trace element pattern very similar to the composition reported here has been suggested for the source region of rocks of the so-called durbachite suite, that is, ultrapotassic melanosyenites, which are found throughout the high-grade Variscan basement. Moreover, the Th, U, Pb, Nb, Ta, and Ti patterns of these newly studied melt inclusions (MI) strongly resemble those observed for peridotite and its enclosed pyroxenite from the T-7 borehole (Staré, České Středhoři Mountains) in N Bohemia. This suggests that a similar kind of crustal-derived melt also occurred here. This study of granitic MI in eclogites from peridotites has provided the first direct characterization of a preserved metasomatic melt, possibly responsible for the metasomatism of several parts of the mantle in the Variscides.  相似文献